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Jumat 21 April, stasiun televisi TV One menjadi yang pertama dalam memperkenalkan ketiga presenter terbarunya yang berbasis AI, yaitu Sasya, Nadira, dan Bhoomi. Tidak hanya mampu menirukan gerakan dan mimik wajah manusia, ketiganya mampu membaca berita dengan intonasi dan ekspresi yang tepat. Di lain sisi, sebuah perusahaan di China, NetDragon Websoft, menunjuk robot AI bernama Ms. Tang Yu sebagai CEO. Sebenarnya … apakah manusia akan tergantikan oleh AI? Bagaimana potensi AI?
Artificial Intellegence Vs Manusia
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Source: Goldman Sachs Economics Research 2023
Kedua grafik menunjukkan algoritma di mana AI melampaui tolok ukur manusia (garis putus-putus) untuk beberapa tugas, terutama dalam hal pengklasifikasian gambar dan pemahaman bacaan dengan akurasi yang terus meningkat tiap tahunnya.
Output-nya tidak lagi hanya mengolah informasi, tapi mampu memahami dan merespons layaknya manusia.
Dengan kehebatannya, apa aja pekerjaan yang “terancam”?
Masa Depan Pekerjaan
![](https://davidwijaya.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image-3.png)
Source: Goldman Sachs Economics Research 2023
Secara global 18% pekerjaan dapat di otomatisasi oleh AI, dengan prediksi bahwa lebih sedikit pekerjaan pada ekonomi emerging market (EM) alias negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia yang terkena dampaknya dibandingkan developed market (DM) atau negara maju.
Melengkapi atau Menggantikan?
![](https://davidwijaya.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image-2.png)
Source: Goldman Sachs Economics Research 2023
Bidang hukum dan perkantoran-administratif memiliki tingkat tergantikan oleh AI yang paling tinggi di bandingkan pekerjaan seperti konstruksi, pemeliharaan, dan instalasi.
Sebagai contoh, di US ¼ pekerjaan dapat di otomatisasi AI dengan tingkat tertinggi pada profesi administrative (46%) serta hukum (44%) dan terendah pada profesi fisik seperti konstruksi (6%).
Kabar baiknya tidak semua tenaga kerja full tergantikan, mayoritas AI hanya melengkapi.
Tingkatkan Produktivitas, Dorong Ekonomi
Secara khusus, sistem akan meningkatkan produktivitas, mengurangi biaya, meningkatkan kualitas serta jangkauan produk yang di hasilkan perusahaan.
Polanya:
- AI/robot lebih efektif di banding manusia
- Displacement effect: manusia hilang pekerjaan, di lain sisi profit perusahaan meningkat (karena produktivitas AI) tetapi agar tetap kompetitif maka harga jual harus tetap rendah.
- Income effect: daya beli masyarakat naik maka pendapatan naik.
- Demand meningkat, perusahaan perlu pekerja tambahan.
PDB Ekonomi Global
![](https://davidwijaya.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image-4.png)
Source: PwC Analysis, 2018
*semua angka PDB di laporkan dalam nilai tukar pasar dan harga riil thn 2016
Adopsi AI kian meluas mendorong PDB. Salah satu dari 4 firma akuntansi terbesar di dunia, PwC, memprediksi potensi AI berkontribusi pada ekonomi global mampu mencapai $15,7 Triliun di tahun 2030.
Keuntungan terbesar datang dari China (26,1% of GDP) dan Amerika Utara (14,5% of GDP) setara total $10,7 Triliun, menyumbang hampir 70% dari dampak ekonomi global itu sendiri.
Munculkan Minat dan Investasi
Melalui potensinya, di tahun 2021 investasi swasta US dan global untuk AI masing-masing mencapai $53 Miliar dan $94 Miliar, naik lebih dari 5x lipat dari 5 tahun sebelumnya.
Bila terus berlanjut, maka investasi AI dapat mendekati 1% dari PDB US pada tahun 2030.
Kesimpulan
Mungkin AI akan semakin memberi dampak besar pada tahun-tahun mendatang. Tugas kita manusia adalah bertahan. Kita harus cepat beradaptasi pada kecanggihan teknologi yang ada, sambil terus tingkatkan kapasitas dan kualitas diri.
Semangat!
Sumber:
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