Sesimpel Ini Mengenal Middle Income Trap

Source: The World Bank

World Bank mengklasifikasikan perekonomian dunia berdasarkan gross national dalam 4 kategori, low income (< US$1.085), lower-middle (US$1.086-4.255), upper-middle (US$ 4.256-13.205), dan high income (> US$13.205). Dan menurut data, tahun 2021 Indonesia termasuk dalam pendapatan menengah ke bawah di angka US$4.180. Bahkan, Indonesia di targetkan baru mampu keluar dari middle income trap di tahun 2036. 

Kenapa Indonesia perlu waktu yang lama?

Konsep Middle Income Trap

9 The theoretical model for the "Middle Income Trap". (Note: formulated...  | Download Scientific Diagram

Source: Contemporary China Studies

Middle income trap menjadi kondisi ketika negara berhasil mencapai tingkat pendapatan menengah tapi gagal keluar dari level tersebut untuk naik menjadi negara maju.Sederhananya, awalnya negara mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat, lalu setelah naik level menjadi pendapatan menengah pertumbuhan ekonominya justru stagnan

Bonus Demografi, Peluang atau Hambatan

Source: BPS, di olah databoks

Berkaitan dengan itu, Menkeu Sri Mulyani mengatakan bahwa Indonesia akan mendapat bonus demografi, di mana penduduk usia produktif akan lebih banyak di banding usia tidak produktif di tahun 2045. Hal ini menjadi peluang yang bagus, di mana tahun 2045, di saat jumlah penduduk di proyeksikan ±319 Juta jiwa, mereka dengan usia produktif akan mampu mendorong pendapatan per kapita dan membuat kondisi fiskal lebih baik karena kemampuan bayar pajak tinggi.

Tren Kualitas SDM 

Source: Survey PISA, 2018

Tapi, bonus demografi juga dapat memperparah middle income trap bila kualitas SDM rendah dan tidak punya daya saing yang salah satu penyebabnya karena tingkat pendidikan yang rendah. 

Hasil skor PISA 2018 menempatkan Indonesia di urutan ke-74 atau ke-6 dari bawah. Bahkan, sejak keikutsertaan pertama di tahun 2000 hingga 2018 skor kemampuan membaca, berhitung, dan Sains Indonesia cenderung stagnan. 

Jadi, apa solusinya?

Peningkatan Kualitas SDM melalui Pendidikan

Source: Informasi APBN 2023

Middle income trap perlu di atasi dengan reformasi struktural termasuk di dalamnya inovasi, efisiensi, dan akselerasi berbagai aspek termasuk pendidikan, dengan harapan menghasilkan kualitas SDM yang berdaya saing. 

Dengan alokasi anggaran pendidikan Rp612,2 Triliun di tahun 2023, di harapkan membantu pemerintah dalam pemerataan kualitas dan layanan pendidikan, hingga profesionalisme pengajar dan metode pembelajaran.

Akselerasi Infrastruktur dan Teknologi 

Berikut Source: Informasi APBN 2023

Akselerasi dan efisiensi infrastruktur/teknologi menjadi agenda penting selanjutnya dalam mendorong transformasi ekonomi. 

Di tahun 2023, Rp391,7 Triliun di anggarkan negara untuk pembangunan infrastruktur, termasuk di dalamnya,

  • Pemenuhan layanan dasar
  • Pemerataan akses infrastruktur TIK  
  • Pembangunan infrastruktur konektivitas dan transportasi 
  • Pembangunan infrastruktur energi dan pangan

Peningkatan Investasi

Berikut Source: Kementerian Investasi/BPKM, diolah databoks

Iklim Investasi salah satu instrument utama dalam pembangunan juga sangat penting untuk terus ditingkatkan.

Di Kuartal I-2023, Kementerian Investasi/BKPM mencatat realisasi investasi di Indonesia mencapai Rp328,9 Triliun atau 23,5% dari target investasi tahun ini sebesar Rp1.400 Triliun, dengan kontribusi terbesar datang dari Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), yaitu Rp177 T.

Akhir Kata

Kita punya peluang besar untuk melewati middle income trap. Tapi semua itu butuh prasyrat, kita butuh infrastruktur yang efisien, cara kerja yang cepat dan kompetitif, serta berorientasi pada hasil.

– Joko Widodo

Sumber:

https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/9780821387856_CH04

Penulis:

Kategori: Bisnis Keuangan

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