Sesimpel Ini Penjelasan AS Resesi 2008 Di The Big Short

Singkatnya film ini ngebahas kisah nyata tentang resesi 2008 di AS yang bernama Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Awal kejadiannya tuh karena adanya program Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) tahun 1970. Apa itu?

Mengenal Mortgage Backed Security (MBS)

Kalau KPR biasa kan orang ngajuin pinjaman ke bank, terus kalau sudah lolos, baru di kasih pinjaman dengan jangka waktu panjang. Tapi sesudah itu bank harus nunggu biar uangnya balik..

Dengan MBS, Bank bisa lebih cepat dapat uang. Karena KPR-KPR yang sudah di tawarkan itu di jual di pasar uang agar investor bisa masuk. Lebih cepat dapat uang, maka KPR bisa lebih banyak di tawarkan. Inilah awal dari terjadinya AS resesi 2008

Kondisi Sebenarnya dari MBS

MBS sangat laku karena profit oke dan terjamin aman. Bahkan perusahaan pemeringkat memberi nilai rating AAA sampai -A (bagus banget). Gara-gara investor membludak, bank juga makin gencar buat menawarkan KPR.

Nah ada orang perusahaan investasi namanya Dr. Michael Burry melihat keanehan pada MBS karena:

  • Hanya 4 dari 100 rumah KPR yang terjual yang terisi oleh penghuni
  • Banyak orang yang seharusnya tidak dibiayai KPR, malah dibiayai contohnya imigran gelap

Nasabah tidak sanggup membayar ketika bunga meningkat pada skema floating rate

Munculnya Produk Asuransi MBS

Tahu beberapa keanehan itu, Burry pergi ke bank untuk menawarkan pembuatan produk asuransi MBS bernama Credit Default Swap (CDS). Jadi kalau MBS macet, bank bayar ke Burry. Tapi kalau gak macet, Burry bayar premi. Tagihannya fantastis, 1,3 miliar dollar. Bank menertawakan Burry karena bank berpikir MBS ini sangat aman.

Fakta Lengkap tentang MBS

Di lain sisi, Mark Baum, seorang pengusaha dan investor mendapat telpon tentang berita CDS yang digagas Burry. Penasaran, akhirnya Baum mencari informasi dan mendatangi perusahaan pemeringkat. Berikut keanehan lainnya dari MBS:

  • Ternyata perusahaan pemeringkat memberi peringkat secara asal-asalan. Mereka menjalankan taktik “Asal Bapak Senang”, memberi peringkat tinggi agar kliennya membayar mereka. 
  • Jumlah komisi pengawas KPR terlalu sedikit. Jadinya KPR longgar dan asal-asalan karena kurang diawasi. 
  • Persepsi masyarakat juga salah karena beranggapan kalau property akan naik terus. Padahal kenaikan harga tergantung rentang waktu, bisa 1 tahun, 10 tahun kemudian.

CDO, Asuransi untuk KPR-KPR yang Tidak Layak

Singkat cerita, investor CDS berdatangan. Bahkan muncul asuransi lain bernama Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). CDO ini mengumpulkan KPR-KPR yang tidak layak dan kemudian diasuransikan. 

KPR-KPR yang tidak layak ini memunculkan Subprime Mortgage Crisis, tepatnya di tahun 2008 di AS. Apa yang terjadi? KPR-KPR macet, bank-bank bangkrut, dan investor CDS mendapat keuntungan yang luar biasa besar.

Kejatuhan Lehman Brothers

FYI, di dunia nyata ternyata Lehman Brothers, investment bank terbesar ke-4 di US saat itu, bangkrut saat resesi 2008. Sebabnya Lehman Brothers (LB) ini sangat “murah hati” dengan memampukan kalangan masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah (MBR) untuk memiliki KPR. Gini ceritanya:

Supply Rumah Sitaan Berlebih

Dulu Lehman Brothers berpikir kalaupun terjadi gagal bayar, tetap akan menguntungkan mereka. Karena rumah hasil sitaan bisa dijadikan aset perusahaan yang siap dijual. Namun bencana terjadi ketika The Fed di tahun 2008 menaikkan suku bunga untuk mengendalikan inflasi. Bisnis Lehman Brothers runtuh karena mayoritas debitur yang tidak sanggup bayar. Ketika properti ingin dijual pun akhirnya tidak laku pada harga wajar, karena supply yang terlalu banyak dan demand nggak sebanyak itu. 

Key Points:

  1. Keserakahan manusia bisa membawa ke dalam kejatuhan, seperti bank yang akhirnya bangkrut karena serakah dalam memberikan KPR kepada siapapun demi dapat keuntungan.
  2. Sebelum berinvestasi ataupun kredit seperti KPR, telitilah risiko dan persyaratannya dengan baik
  3. Jangan ikut-ikutan orang buat ambil KPR karena gengsi, kalau memang belum sanggup, jangan dipaksakan.

 Sumber:

Penulis:

Kategori: Keuangan

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  109. The initiatives described beneath include a world award profitable multi-household residence, a relaxed and rolling Montessori school, a massive workplace project complete with kinetic effect, a model of simplicity in single family dwelling design in the US, Asian innovation achieved in Japan with a powerful Irish connection, and an Olympic village mission in Austria.

  110. Ambrose Academy and seven Dane County parochial schools filed an unique motion in the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom challenging the County health office’s emergency order on religious liberty grounds and as missing statutory authority.

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  113. The sheet thus rolled is roughly trimmed whereas scorching and comfortable, in order to take away those parts of glass which have been spoiled by rapid contact with the ladle, and the sheet, nonetheless tender, is pushed into the open mouth of an annealing tunnel or temperature-controlled oven referred to as a lehr, down which it is carried by a system of rollers.

  114. But when you’ve got wandered up and down the soap aisle just lately, you probably know that trying to pick out the fitting type of soap from among the vast choice of merchandise might be as difficult as getting an excellent lather with none water.

  115. Ming Tian beats him within the tournament prelims however doesn’t settle for he misplaced honest believing Tian is still weaker than him going as far as to carry his gang to Tian’s house with bats for revenge but is driven off by Fang Yu, Cheng Yanan, and Song Xiaomi.

  116. This might vary from a bunch’s de jure barring of women from positions like priest, bishop, pastor, rabbi, or comparable clerical figures, to gender discrimination at the level of local congregations that prevent girls from rising to any position of particular status or energy.

  117. Begun in Oxford in 1833 by the theologian John Keble and supported by John Henry Newman, the Oxford Motion careworn the universality or “catholic” nature of the Christian Church and urged priests of the Church of England to rethink their pre-Reformation traditions in each Doctrine and Liturgy.

  118. On eleven May 1944, parts of the British 4th Infantry Division and 8th Indian Infantry Division, with supporting fire from the first Canadian Armoured Brigade, performed a profitable night time crossing of the Garigliano and Rapido rivers, against sturdy resistance.

  119. Ought to the bridal store go out of enterprise prior to receiving your gown, you possibly can contact the financial institution that issued your card, and you’ll most probably obtain a full refund of your deposit (it’s best to all the time examine the foundations together with your issuing financial institution).

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  121. 1260 allegorical illustrations of a knight battling the seven deadly sins in a manuscript of William Peraldus’ Summa Vitiorum, and of a girl penitent fending off diabolical assaults within the De Quincy Apocalypse, present the diagram placed on a shield.

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  127. The artists had developed methods of achieving every possible textural effect by means of the professional software of floor-glass paint and yellow-stain:- babies’ ringlets, outdated men’s beards, silk brocade, dove’s feather, ripe grapes, gold braid, glowing pearls and greasy sheep’s wool could all be painted to reasonable perfection by any number of studios.

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  130. The decision was met with derision in the French press and also led to Coupet’s walking out of the national squad before the tournament, although he was to return in the future later.

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  132. Jack declares that the mirror picture is just a instrument and, in the English model, says she should concern herself with his “residence work.” Noh-A nicknames him Nasty-Smile or Smirky, attributable to not figuring out his name all through the primary few scenes.

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  138. Richard Redgrave, himself a member of the Royal Academy, attempted to apologise for and clarify the Royal Academy’s selection, saying ‘You recognize they can’t dangle every part that is available in higgledy-piggledy’; to which Whistler replied ‘Why, what do you name your current exhibition, isn’t that higgledy – and significantly piggledy?

  139. The factor that makes these “special results” of Clayton and Bell the more outstanding is that they had been achieved with little resource to painted glass and flashed glass and without the multi-colored Favrile glass used by Louis Comfort Tiffany studios and the Aesthetic designers of the United States.

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  148. The earlier engine featured vertical valves with a pent roof combustion chamber, necessitating a valve actuating mechanism by which the pushrods passed by means of bosses drilled within the cylinder heads crossing the valve guides with the rocker arms and doubling back to actuate the valves.

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