Menurut kalian kapan krisis ekonomi terparah yang pernah terjadi? Krisis 98 atau resesi tahun 2020 kemarin? Nyatanya, krisis ekonomi paling mengerikan justru terjadi pada masa presiden pertama Indonesia, Ir. Soekarno.
Bahkan sejak awal pun untuk mendapatkan kedaulatan, Indonesia harus “membeli” mahal melalui hasil KMB yang membuat Indonesia akhirnya mewarisi utang pemerintah Hindia Belanda sebesar 4,3 Miliar Gulden atau setara US$1,3 Miliar saat itu.
Sebenarnya, gimana kondisi saat itu?
Tingginya Defisit APBN
Berikut Source: DDTC News, Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Lintasan Sejarah
Saat itu, Indonesia yang masih muda harus berjuang melawan konflik yang justru banyak datang dari internal. Salah satu yang paling menelan biaya besar adalah Trikora dan Ganyang Malaysia hingga Rp567,1 Miliar membuat pos pengeluaran banyak mengalir untuk pertahanan militer, 40% dari total anggaran Pemerintah yang mencapai Rp985,5 Miliar.
Dengan alokasi ini, artinya semakin sedikit anggaran yang tersisa untuk peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat sedangkan defisit anggaran terus bertambah.
Ekspor Merosot, Utang Melonjak, Cadangan Devisa Nyaris Nol
Sebelumnya, Ekspor yang terus menurun berimbas pada keuangan negara. Utang luar negeri dan bunga pinjaman terus meroket membuat sebagian besar perolehan devisa terkuras untuk menutupinya.
Bruce Glassburner dalam bukunya yang berjudul The Economy of Indonesia menyebutkan, cadangan devisa bahkan hanya tersisa US$ 17 Juta pada Maret 1967 dan total pembayaran utang yang dijadwalkan pada periode 1967-1984 setara dengan 3 tahun pendapatan ekspor atau mencapai US$ 2,42 Miliar.
Cetak Uang atasi Defisit
Alhasil The show must go on. Pemerintahan harus terus berjalan, segala kekurangan harus dibiayai. Dan cara termudah (dan satu-satunya saat itu) adalah dengan mencetak uang.
Pemerintah yang awalnya tak punya akses langsung dalam pencetakan uang, mengubah UU yang membuat bank sentral (BI) tunduk pada Pemerintah.
Sayangnya, niat awal yang baik untuk menutup defisit pembiayaan justru membuat uang beredar dan inflasi lepas kendali.
Langkah Pengendalian
Oleh karena itu, Untuk mengontrol peredaran uang, Pemerintah ambil kebijakan sanering, dengan
- Menurunkan nilai uang kertas Rp500 menjadi Rp50 dan Rp1.000 menjadi Rp100.
- Membekukan 90% giro dan deposito di bank >Rp25 ribu dan menukar dengan surat utang pemerintah.
- Devaluasi rupiah dari Rp11,4 menjadi Rp45 per USD.
Di tengah keputusasaan, Pemerintah juga menurunkan nilai mata uang Rp1.000 menjadi uang baru Rp1.
Seperti sia-sia, segala kebijakan tidak berdampak apapun pada uang beredar. Defisit tak teratasi, pencetakan uang terus berjalan, dan situasi makin memburuk.
Mimpi Buruk Hiperinflasi
Berikut Source: Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Lintasan Sejarah
*) Rata-rata per tahun
**) kenaikan harga (inflasi) lebih besar dairpada kenaikan uang beredar
Mulai tahun 1961, inflasi “biasa” yang tak tertangani berubah menjadi hiperinflasi dengan ciri laju yang sangat tinggi (>100%) dan puncaknya saat itu inflasi Indonesia pernah menyentuh hampir 600%.
Ciri khas hiperinflasi lainnya adalah hilangnya kepercayaan orang memegang uang. Begitu terima uang, orang akan segera memakainya untuk menghindari merosotnya nilai. Hal ini terlihat dari meningkatnya nilai kecepatan dan seringnya uang berpindah.
Paradoks Hiperinflasi
Pada akhirnya hiperinflasi memberi paradoks, yaitu meskipun jumlah uang beredar bertambah dengan cepat, uang di tangan selalu tidak cukup untuk kegiatan sehari-hari karena nilai riil uang beredar sebenarnya turun (lihat tabel sebelumnya).
Harga barang meningkat pesat, membuat orang lebih suka kegiatan yang cepat memberi untung, yaitu jual-beli barang (beli pagi, sore dijual) dibandingkan kegiatan produksi maupun investasi yang butuh waktu lebih lama.
Ekonomi Lambat Berkembang
Pertumbuhan Rata-Rata PDB
| 1949-1957 | 1957-1966 | |
| Sektor | (%) | (%) |
| Pertanian | 2,3 | 2,7 |
| Industri | 10,9 | 0,3 |
| Migas | 12,9 | 4,5 |
| Perdagangan | 5,9 | 2,1 |
| Transportasi | 7,3 | -1,7 |
| Pemerintahan | 6,8 | -4,9 |
| Jasa | 5,5 | 0,9 |
| PDB | ||
| total | 5,5 | 1,8 |
| Non-migas | 4,3 | 0,4 |
| Per-kapita | 2,9 | -0,6 |
Berikut Source: Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Lintasan Sejarah
Ujung tanduk dari semuanya mungkin akan terlihat pada pertumbuhan ekonomi itu sendiri.
Sejak 1957-1966, berbagai sektor utama ekonomi Indonesia mengalami stagnasi bahkan turun drastis akibat sejumlah faktor seperti investasi (terutama dari LN) terhenti karena politik, kelangkaan bahan baku, minimnya devisa, hingga pergeseran kegiatan produktif ke spekulatif yang terjadi bersamaan.
PDB total dan PDB non-migas akhirnya tumbuh di bawah laju pertumbuhan penduduk dan PDB per kapita terus turun sejak tahun 1962.
Berikut Kesimpulan Krisis Ekonomi Indonesia
Banyaknya intervensi atau campur tangan yang berkaitan dengan kepentingan dan tujuan politik dalam setiap kebijakan ekonomi yang ada membuat setiap upaya yang diambil tidak bisa memberikan dampak yang maksimal dalam pelaksanaanya.
Selain itu, Alokasi pendanaan setiap pos pengeluaran prioritas Pemerintah juga harus dibatasi dan dipertimbangkan sebaik mungkin. Jangan sampai kehebatan bangsa hanya terlihat dari berbagai proyek mercusuar dan pertahanannya, tapi lebih penting dari itu kesejahteraan masyarakat juga harus tercapai.
Sumber: https://tirto.id/krisis-ekonomi-1960-an-sanering-gagal-sukarno-dilengserkan-cXZi
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