Sesimpel ini mengetahui prediksi Benner Cycle

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Telah diklaim bahwa Benner Cycle secara akurat memprediksi naik turunnya pasar selama lebih dari 100 tahun lebih. Apakah hal ini benar? Ayuk kita kupas lebih lanjut.

Benner Cycle Definition Model Accurate Market Prophecy For Over 100 Years Is It Really The Tool Investors Need Benner Cycle Has Been Making 'Accurate' Market Prophecy For Over 100 Years. Here's How It Works

What Is Benner Cycle?

Tahun 1875, Seorang petani yang Bernama Samuel Benner di Ohio mempublikasi buku berjudul “Benners Prophecies: Future Ups And Down In Prices”. Awalnya buku ini memprediksi harga komoditas seperti besi kasar, jagung, babi, dan katun. 

Source: Benners Prophecies: Future Ups And Down In Prices.

Ketiga Siklus Benner Cycle

Source: Benners Prophecies: Future Ups And Down In Prices.

Terdapat tiga siklus dalam teori Benner Cycle, yakni:

  • Harga jagung dan babi mengikuti siklus 11 tahun dengan puncak terjadi setiap lima dan enam tahun secara bergantian.
  • Harga kapas berfluktuasi dalam siklus dengan puncak 11 tahun.
  • Siklus 27 tahun dalam harga besi kasar, dengan titik rendah terjadi setiap 11 dan 9 tahun dan puncaknya terjadi setiap 8 dan 10 tahun..

Cara Membacanya

Sebuah gambar berisi diagram Deskripsi dibuat secara otomatis

Cara membaca chart ini juga cukup simple

Ketika panic years terjadi, pasar membeli atau menjual saham secara tidak rasional sampai harganya meroket atau anjlok. 

Di saat good time years, harga tinggi dan waktu terbaik untuk memperdagangkan saham, komoditas, dan aset lainnya.

 Di hard time years:  tantangan, saham, produk, dan aset yang di beli di tahan sampai tahun-tahun “booming” masa kemakmuran, di mana mereka harus di jual.

Siklus Masa Sulit

Seperti yang terlihat pada gambar, tahun 2023 di tandai sebagai masa sulit. Beberapa orang mungkin mengatakan, siklusnya akurat dengan volatilitas saat ini di pasar saham domestik dan global, dengan krisis seperti kegagalan perbankan, perkiraan perlambatan ekonomi, dan pemutusan hubungan kerja teknologi.

Tingkat Akurasi Benner Cycle

Lalu apakah Benner Cycle ini dapat kita percaya ?

Secara singkat jawabannya adalah tidak. Kenapa?

karena sains atau logika di balik siklus Dalam bukunya Samuel Benner mengatakan, “Penyebab yang menyebabkan periodisitas dan lamanya siklus ini dapat di temukan di tata surya kita. fakta meteorologi bahwa Jupiter adalah elemen yang berkuasa dalam siklus harga produksi alami kita; sementara Saturnus memberikan pengaruh yang mengatur siklus dalam manufaktur dan perdagangan.”

Namun, Sejauh ini tidak ada bukti pasti tentang pengaruh astrologi pada aktivitas keuangan, kecuali jika seseorang percaya pada astrologi.

Kesimpulan

Nah bagaimana pendapat temen-temen menurut Benner Cycle ini? Apakah teman-teman mempercayainya ataukah hanya sebuah kebetulan dalam memprediksi market di masa-masa selanjutnya?

Sumber:

https://www.therationalinvestor.com/blog/how-the-benner-cycle-predicts-100-years-of-market-movement

Penulis:

Kategori: Keuangan

Join the Conversation

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