Sesimpel Ini Paham Dunia Tanpa Dominasi Dollar

Belakangan, cara lembaga keuangan Amerika Serikat yang jatuh satu demi satu seperti menjadi indikasi akan berakhirnya masa kejayaan negara yang terkenal dengan kekuatan ekonomi dan militernya tersebut. Bahkan beberapa prediksi menyebutkan dalam 2-3 tahun ke depan penggunaan secara global Dollar US sebagai mata uang akan berkurang 40-45%. Ini kah masa akhir hegemoni dominasi Dollar?

Eksistensi yang Terus Memudar

Source: IMF

Setahun sejak kuartal III 2021 hingga kuartal III 2022 dollar terus melemah dalam menunjukkan fungsinya sebagai global reserve, dengan terakhir berada pada angka USD$ ±6.441 Miliar. 

Penurunan ini sebenarnya sudah terjadi sejak lama. Tercatat setidaknya dalam 25 tahun terakhir terjadi penurunan 12%, yaitu 71% pada tahun 1999 menjadi sekitar 59% di tahun 2022. 

Kok bisa?

BRICS New Payment System

Sanksi Amerika terhadap Rusia atas invasinya ke Ukraina dengan membekukan setengah cadangan emas dan devisa hampir $300M serta mengeluarkannya dari SWIFT membuat Dollar US kehilangan netralitasnya. 

Imbasnya, anggota BRICS lain mulai berpikir tindakan pencegahan dengan rencana tinggalkan Dollar dalam sistem pembayaran dan penyelesaian global mereka.

BRICS yang memiliki proporsi ekonomi besar (41% populasi global, 24% PDB global, 16% perdagangan global) membuka peluang bagi Yuan yang telah mendapat momentum dalam internasionalisasi selama beberapa tahun terakhir sebagai alternatif. 

Perlahan Tinggalkan Dollar 

Salah satu bukti keseriusan ingin lepas dari dominasi Dollar US, Gazprom Rusia resmi menandatangani perjanjian pengalihan pembayaran pasokan gas ke China dengan Yuan dan Rubel. 

China juga terus memperluas internasionalisasi Yuan melalui perjanjian pertukaran mata uang bilateral dengan >40 negara. 

Beberapa negara lain seperti Brazil, Aurstalia, Argentina, Mesir, Uni Eropa, dan Turki juga melakukan perjanjian bilateral untuk menghindari monopoli Dollar US.

Perjanjian dengan Arab

Saudi Arabia Open to Talks on Trade in Non-US Dollar Currencies - Bloomberg

Sudah jadi rahasia umum bahwa US pernah buat perjanjian dengan Arab Saudi untuk menjual minyak dalam Dollar US yang kemudian mencetuskan istilah Petrodollar. 

Arab dan US punya kepentingan bersama terutama Riyal Saudi yang dipatok terhadap Dollar dan berguna untuk banyak transaksi. 

Namun, 2 minggu pertama Januari lalu Arab Saudi menyatakan terbuka diskusi untuk menyelesaikan perdagangannya dengan mata uang selain Dollar US melalui pernyataan Menteri Keuangan, Mohammed Al-Jadaan. 

Bagaimana dengan Indonesia?

Dodi Budi Waluyo : Faktor Non Musiman Dapat Bantu Rupiah Menguat - Berita  24 Indonesia

Awal Januari lalu, Deputi Gubernur BI melaporkan peningkatan transaksi perdagangan dan investasi mata uang lokal atau local currency settlement (LCS) meningkat hingga akhir 2022 lalu. Mencapai US$3,8 Miliar(Rp±57Triliun) dengan 4 negara, Thailand, Malaysia, Jepang, dan China, membuat BI berencana mempeluasnya dengan menggandeng India dan Korsel. 

Kerja sama transaksi di pasar uang (local currency transaction/LCT) kini juga mulai digerakkan sebagai strategi mengurangi ketergantungan Dollar US. 

Sekarang, apa jadinya bila semua tinggalkan Dollar?

Inflasi Perdagangan dan Ekspor setelah Dominasi Dollar Hilang

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG US Macro Strategy

Harus diakui, hegemoni Dollar dalam perdagangan global sangat kuat. Mengurangi dollar berarti segala sesuatu yang berdenominasi atasnya seperti bahan pangan dan energi akan semakin sulit dijangkau. 

Dalam pengaruhnya, terkikisnya dominasi dollar akan menghasilkan grafik Fed funds rate paling curam dengan kenaikan terpanjang selama sejarah. Imbasnya, biaya pembelian Dollar dalam mata uang lain akan semakin meningkat dan memungkinkan mereka mencetak/menjual lebih banyak mata uangnya yang jelas bisa berujung pada inflasi negaranya sendiri. 

Meningkatkan Potensi Emas

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

The wind changes. Ketika Dollar turun, emas naik. Bank sentral secara global telah mengumpulkan cadangan emas sejak 55 tahun lalu. Salah satu yang paling tinggi, tahun 2018 651 ton emas berhasil terbeli. 

Kenapa bank sentral seolah bekerja keras menumpuk emas? 

De-dolarisasi jawabannya. 

Tak bisa dipungkiri, emas menawarkan alternatif. Seperti dikatakan Bank sentral Belanda, DNB, emas adalah celengan sempurna, jangkar kepercayaan sistem keuangan. Jika sistem runtuh, stok emas dapat menjadi dasar membangunnya kembali. 

Kesimpulan dari Dunia Tanpa Dominasi Dollar

Banyaknya ancaman terhadap dominasi Dollar mungkin tidak langsung menghilangkan kepercayaan diri US. 

Masih perlu waktu untuk menunjukkan apakah Dollar masih memiliki sisa umur untuk kembali mendominasi atau hadirnya Yuan, emas, atau alternatif lainnya mampu membahayakan status mata uang dengan pengaruh yang kuat selama bertahun-tahun ini.

Penulis:

Kategori: Keuangan

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