Sesimpel Ini Pertaruhkan $1,6 M ala Michael Burry

Konsep “Value Investing” mungkin paling sesuai dengan filosofi dan strategi yang dipilih Michael Burry atau mungkin dia juga bisa dibilang termasuk contrarian investor alias melawan arus tren pasar yang ada (menjual ketika yang lain membeli dan sebaliknya) dan invest dengan harga di bawah nilai intrinsiknya. Namun dari sekian banyaknya prediksi yang salah, dulu waktu subprime mortgage crisis, dia justru untung besar berkat analisis credit default swap-nya. Nah, kira-kira prediksi dan usaha antisipasinya kali ini mungkin ga akan berhasil seperti tahun 2008 lalu?

Perkenalkan, Ini Michael Burry

Dr Michael Burry Predicts Tesla Stock Could Plummet By 90% This Year

Investor “Big Short”, Michael Burry, seorang yang terkenal bukan hanya karena buku dan film-nya, tapi juga karena keberhasilannya memprediksi keruntuhan pasar real estate penyebab krisis keuangan global tahun 2008 silam. 

Rupanya setelah Lima belas tahun berlalu, kini Burry kembali menarik perhatian setelah bet (bertaruh) senilai US$1,6M (Rp24,6 Triliun) pada kehancuran Wall Street. 

The Hits, Misses, and Reality

Prediksinya bukanlah yang pertama kali. Burry telah berkali-kali “meramalkan” banyak hal.  

TahunPrediksiKenyataan
2005Subprime mortgage crisismortgage crisis terjadi tahun 2008 menyebabkan krisis keuangan global
2015Stock Market Crash S&P500 naik 11% di tahun depan
2017Global Financial MeltdownS&500 menguat 19% 12 bulan berikutnya
2019Stock Market Crash (Bubble in Index ETFs)Market naik 15% di tahun berikutnya.
2020Massive Bearish BetS&P500 meroket 72% ditahun berikutnya.
2021Market Bubble CrashMarket menguat 16% di tahun berikutnya.
2022Market failuresMarket menguat 21% selama 11 bulan ke depan
Jan’2023RecessionS&P500 meningkat 17% Ytd.

Berikut Source: Adam Khoo YouTube, Finbold

Kira-kira prediksinya kali ini tepat atau keliru lagi?

94% Portofolio Dipertaruhkan

Berikut Source: 13F Info, Reuters

Menurut 13F (dokumen yang menunjukkan posisi perusahaan investasi), Burry telah bertaruh bearish terhadap indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq 100. Perusahaan investasi miliknya, Scion Capital, membeli 2 Juta put option SPY (S&P500) dengan notional value US$866 Juta dan 2 Juta put option QQQ (Nasdaq 100) sebesar US$739 Juta. 

Bila berdasarkan data, Burry terlihat berani mengalokasikan lebih dari 90% portofolionya. Tapi, benarkah sebanyak itu? 

Put Option dan Notional Value

Contohnya dalam kasus Burry ada istilah put option dan notional value. 

Put option menjadi kontrak yang memberikan hak bagi pembeli put option untuk menjual saham dengan harga yang telah disepakati dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Saat investor membeli put option maka ia akan untung saat harga saham turun. 

Sedangkan notional value adalah nilai saham yang mendasari suatu kontrak, dengan rumus perhitungan

 jumlah saham pada kontrak x harga saham saat itu (spot price)

Sehingga menariknya, nilai yang dicantumkan pada dokumen adalah notional value-nya bukan nilai kontrak put option-nya. Sekarang, apa bedanya? 

Coba Asumsikan

Kira-kira gini, berikut misalnya: 

  • Harga SPY saat ini $400
  • Harga put option $5 per saham

Bagi Burry, harga SPY overvalued dan ia yakin suatu saat harganya akan turun. Maka Burry beli kontrak put option dengan perjanjian bahwa suatu saat ia bisa menjual SPY di harga $300. 

Maka, Burry hanya akan untung saat harga SPY di bawah $295 ($300-$5). 

Bila ternyata harga SPY di kemudian hari adalah $200 maka, 

Potensi untung Burry = $295-$200

= $95 per saham. 

Bila Burry punya 100 saham SPY maka,

Harga kontrak put option = 100x $5 

= $500

notional value = 100x $400

= $4000

Sehingga terlihat bahwa nilai kontrak pasti lebih kecil dibandingkan notional value-nya. Artinya, kerugian (nilai yang dipertaruhkan) Burry tidak akan melebihi harga kontraknya alias tidak sebesar nominal yang tertera di dokumen yang adalah notional value. 

Berikut Strategi Scion 

Dan selama pengajuan dokumen 13F terakhir, Scion Asset Management telah melakukan penyesuaian pada beberapa portfolio penting berikut:

Noteworthy new BuysNoteworthy new Sells
Expedia Group Inc (EXPE)Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR (BABA)
Charter Communications Inc (CHTR)JD.com Inc ADR (JD)
Generac Holdlings Inc (GNRC)PacWest Bancorp (PACW)
Cigna Holding Co (CI)Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
CVS Health Corp. (CVS)Capital One Financial Corp (COF)
MGM Resorts International, Inc. (MGM)Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA)
Vital Energy Inc. (VTLE)Coherent Corp (COHR)

Berikut Source: Sure Dividend Analyzed 

Bisa jadi bahan pertimbangan nih..  meskipun kalau dilihat dari dokumen 13F tadi, Burry sendiri tetap invest di saham-saham tertentu Nasdaq100 atau S&P500. 

Kesimpulan  

Michael Burry prevê a chegada da "mãe de todos os crashes" - NeoFeed

Dari kisah Michael Burry, kita jadi belajar untuk jangan langsung percaya dengan headline media karena belum tentu mencerminkan strategi investor yang sebenarnya. Dan karena market tidak sepenuhnya bisa diprediksi, lebih penting untuk kita bisa fokus investasi pada instrument yang menurut kita berkualitas, tanpa peduli harganya sedang naik atau turun.

Terakhir, kalian sendiri setuju ga dengan Burry atau punya prediksi lain?

Penulis:

Kategori: Investasi

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